Memorial Betting Card
- Clayborne Taylor
- Jun 3
- 4 min read
Couple weeks of bad luck down the stretch with Si Woo placing second and Smalley coming in tied for third last week. We’re at Jack’s place this week and I’m loving the card so let’s get after it and claim the fifth win of the year.
Key Stats for Muirfield Village
Jack Nicklaus’ course traditionally rewards:
Elite Approach Play (SG: APP)
Strong Ball Striking (SG: BS)
Ability to avoid big numbers around difficult greens (ARG)
Solid putting on fast bentgrass greens
Driving accuracy is generally more important than raw distance
Historically, winners here are usually elite tee-to-green players rather than pure putting specialists.
🇺🇸 Scottie Scheffler
SG: Ball Striking
1
OTT
4
APP
1
ARG
10
PUTT
15
Why He Can Win
Simply put, this is the perfect Muirfield Village profile.
The #1 Ball Striker and #1 Approach player in the field means Scheffler enters with the two most predictive statistics for success at this venue. Your screenshot confirms exactly why he’s a massive favorite.
He’s also seeking a historic third consecutive Memorial title after winning in both 2024 and 2025. Only Tiger Woods has previously won three straight Memorials.
What Makes Him Dangerous
Best iron player in the world.
Rarely beats himself.
Excellent around the greens.
Putting has improved dramatically over the past two seasons.
The only concern is betting value. At around +300, you’re paying a premium.
Win Probability
Highest in the field.
If Scheffler putts even average, everyone else is playing for second.
🏴 Matt Fitzpatrick
SG: Ball Striking
7
OTT
21
APP
3
ARG
1
PUTT
43
Why He Can Win
This is arguably the most Memorial-friendly statistical profile outside of Scheffler.
The most important number on your screenshot may be:
ARG = 1
Muirfield’s shaved runoffs and difficult green complexes punish poor short games. Fitzpatrick being #1 Around-the-Green gives him a huge advantage.
He’s also:
3rd in Approach
7th in Ball Striking
Those are elite numbers.
Current Form
Fitzpatrick has already won multiple times in 2026 and has been one of the hottest players on Tour. PGA Tour power rankings and betting previews continue to list him among the top threats behind Scheffler.
He also owns previous top-5 finishes at Muirfield Village.
Concern
Putting.
The 43rd ranking is the weakest part of the profile. If the putter heats up for four days, he absolutely has winning upside.
Win Probability
Second-highest among your list.
I actually think he’s the best betting value of the six players.
🇺🇸 Chris Gotterup
SG: Ball Striking
23
OTT
8
APP
55
ARG
49
PUTT
10
Why He Can Win
Gotterup is the boom-or-bust candidate.
The encouraging numbers:
OTT = 8
PUTT = 10
He’s driving it beautifully and converting opportunities.
Several betting analysts have identified him as a sleeper this week due to recent form and upside.
Concern
The approach ranking.
55th in APP is a major red flag at Muirfield.
Historically, Memorial winners almost always gain significant strokes with their irons.
For Gotterup to win:
Driver must be elite.
Putter must stay hot.
Approach play needs to outperform season-long baseline.
Win Probability
Lower than Fitzpatrick and Scheffler, but enormous upside if the irons improve for one week.
🇺🇸 Alex Smalley
SG: Ball Striking
11
OTT
27
APP
9
ARG
38
PUTT
7
Why He Can Win
This might be the most underrated profile on the page.
Look at the combination:
Ball Striking = 11
Approach = 9
Putting = 7
Those are exactly the categories that matter most.
Several analysts have highlighted Smalley as a strong longshot this week after contending recently.
What I Like
Unlike Gotterup, Smalley doesn’t have a glaring weakness.
Nothing is elite except the putter, but everything is solid.
That is often enough at Muirfield because mistakes are heavily punished.
Concern
Lack of winning experience in Signature Events.
Can he stare down Scheffler on Sunday?
That’s the question.
Win Probability
Best longshot among these six.
If I were ranking pure betting value, Smalley would be extremely high.
🇺🇸 Akshay Bhatia
SG: Ball Striking
55
OTT
62
APP
42
ARG
42
PUTT
8
Why He Can Win
The putter.
That’s the entire case.
8th in putting means he can gain strokes quickly and climb leaderboards.
Concern
Everything tee-to-green.
OTT = 62
Ball Striking = 55
Those are poor numbers for Muirfield.
This course generally exposes weak ball-striking.
Path to Victory
He would need:
Exceptional putting week
Hot wedges
Scrambling masterclass
Possible? Yes.
Likely? No.
Win Probability
Lowest among your six selections.
🇺🇸 Jacob Bridgeman
stats:
SG: Ball Striking
57
OTT
39
APP
59
ARG
54
PUTT
41
Why He Can Win
This is primarily a form and upside bet rather than a statistical bet.
The profile doesn’t match recent Memorial winners particularly well.
Concern
Nearly every category is outside the top 35.
The two biggest predictive stats:
Ball Striking = 57
Approach = 59
Those are extremely difficult numbers to overcome at Muirfield.
What Would Need To Happen
Career putting week
Significant improvement with irons
Survive difficult scoring conditions
Win Probability
Lowest statistical chance among the six.
Final Ranking (Best Chance to Win)
1. Scottie Scheffler ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Perfect statistical fit and two-time defending champion.
2. Matt Fitzpatrick ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Elite iron play, elite short game, excellent current form.
3. Alex Smalley ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Outstanding longshot profile with top-10 APP and PUTT.
4. Chris Gotterup ⭐⭐⭐½
Driver and putter can carry him, but approach play is concerning.
5. Akshay Bhatia ⭐⭐
Needs a magical putting week.
6. Jacob Bridgeman ⭐⭐
More of a lottery-ticket outright based on upside than current statistical fit.
Betting Value Ranking
Matt Fitzpatrick
Alex Smalley
Chris Gotterup
Scottie Scheffler
Akshay Bhatia
Jacob Bridgeman
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