2026 Masters Preview: Scheffler the Favorite as McIlroy Chases Historic Back-to-Back Glory

The 90th Masters Tournament tees off April 9 at Augusta National Golf Club, where a field of 92 players will battle over four days for the green jacket and a permanent place in golf lore. Defending champion Rory McIlroy returns after completing the career Grand Slam with his dramatic 2025 playoff victory over Justin Rose, positioning himself for the first back-to-back wins at Augusta since Tiger Woods achieved the feat in 2001-02. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, already a two-time Masters champion, enters as the clear betting favorite at plus-350 to plus-550 odds, riding dominant 2026 form that includes multiple PGA Tour victories and elite ball-striking metrics.

Augusta National Golf Club, measuring 7,565 yards and playing to par 72, remains the quintessential second-shot test in major championship golf. The layout features dramatic elevation changes, lightning-fast, sloping greens, and four reachable par 5s that historically account for roughly 73 percent of scoring separation among contenders. Recent weather events, including impacts from Hurricane Helene and subsequent tree thinning, have increased wind exposure across several holes, making club selection and shot shaping even more critical on the firm surfaces. Strokes gained on approach—particularly from 150 to 200 yards—has been the single strongest predictor of success, often representing 36 percent of a winner’s edge, while par-5 scoring (averaging 4.3 to 4.5 strokes per hole for recent champions) separates the elite from the pack.

 Hole-by-Hole Breakdown

Front Nine (Par 36)  

Hole 1 (Tea Olive, par 4, 445 yards): A dogleg right from an elevated tee demands a precise drive to avoid trouble left and set up an approach to a bunker-guarded green. Historical scoring average is approximately 4.24.  

Hole 2 (Pink Dogwood, par 5, 585 yards): Downhill and reachable in two for longer hitters, though Rae’s Creek guards the green. This remains one of the week’s premier scoring opportunities, with a historical average near 4.77.  

Hole 3 (Flowering Peach, par 4, 350 yards): Short but tight. Accuracy matters more than power on this drivable hole. Average around 4.08.  

Hole 4 (Flowering Crab Apple, par 3, 240 yards): The longest par 3 on the course, played downhill to a narrow, sloping green. Club selection is critical. Average approximately 3.28.  

Hole 5 (Magnolia, par 4, 495 yards): Uphill dogleg left with severe green slopes. Accuracy is paramount. Average near 4.27.  

Hole 6 (Juniper, par 3, 180 yards): Downhill over water and highly sensitive to wind. Average around 3.14.  

Hole 7 (Pampas, par 4, 450 yards): Tight drive into an elevated green with a false front. Precision on the approach is vital. Average approximately 4.16.  

Hole 8 (Yellow Jasmine, par 5, 570 yards): Uphill layout where bombers can reach in two. Average near 4.82.  

Hole 9 (Carolina Cherry, par 4, 460 yards): Slight dogleg with an undulating green. Average around 4.14.  

Back Nine (Par 36)

Hole 10 (Camellia, par 4, 495 yards): Severe downhill dogleg left, often one of the hardest holes on the course. Average approximately 4.31.  

Hole 11 (White Dogwood, par 4, 520 yards): Long par 4 that begins Amen Corner, with water left. Average above 4.25.  

Hole 12 (Golden Bell, par 3, 155 yards): The iconic short par 3 over Rae’s Creek with swirling winds. Scoring average typically ranges from 3.05 to 3.10.  

Hole 13 (Azalea, par 5, 545 yards): Classic risk-reward reachable par 5 with a creek in front. Average near 4.75.  

Hole 14 (Chinese Fir, par 4, 440 yards): Subtle dogleg right with deceptive green breaks. Average around 4.12.  

Hole 15 (Firethorn, par 5, 550 yards): Reachable but protected by water short and long. Eagles are common for leaders. Average near 4.75.  

Hole 16 (Redbud, par 3, 170 yards): Played over water, with the back-left pin position proving especially difficult. Average approximately 2.95.  

Hole 17 (Nandina, par 4, 450 yards): Recently lengthened dogleg left. Average near 4.23.  

Hole 18 (Holly, par 4, 465 yards): Uphill dogleg right finishing hole with a bunker and fast green. Average around 4.23.  

Key Masters Trends:

Historical data from PGA Tour and Masters records underscores several reliable patterns. No first-time competitor has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and 25 of the last 27 champions posted a prior top-30 finish at Augusta. Eleven of the last 12 winners entered the final round inside the top three on the leaderboard. Top-25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking have claimed the last 12 titles, and no winner older than 50 has emerged in the modern era. Course history consistently outperforms raw current form: players with multiple top-12 finishes here tend to excel regardless of early-season results. Par-5 scoring drives the majority of separation, while strokes gained on approach remains the top statistical predictor. Recent champions have gained the bulk of their advantage through iron play and aggressive scoring on holes 2, 8, 13, and 15.

Injury Updates:

Physical setbacks have introduced uncertainty for several contenders on Augusta’s hilly, demanding layout.  

Will Zalatoris continues to manage chronic back issues following multiple procedures, including an artificial disc replacement in 2025 and a recent left ankle injury. He remains outside the current field and would face significant re-injury risk and rust concerns even if he qualifies via the Valero Texas Open.  

Justin Thomas underwent microdiscectomy surgery in November 2025 for a herniated disc causing hip and leg nerve pain. He has shown gradual improvement, including a T8 at The Players Championship, but remains in the process of rebuilding stamina and sharpness. He retains top-20 potential if his irons return to elite levels.  

Sungjae Im missed the early portion of 2026 with a right wrist injury but returned strongly at the Valspar Championship. With the wrist fully resolved, his consistent recent top-12 finishes at the Masters position him well with minimal negative impact.  

Rory McIlroy experienced a lower back muscle spasm in March that led to a withdrawal before the final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a modest T46 at The Players. After three weeks of rest, he has described the issue as resolved, though limited preparation introduces a slight question mark for his back-to-back bid.  

Collin Morikawa suffered back spasms during The Players Championship and withdrew from the Valero Texas Open, leaving him without competitive reps heading into Augusta. His elite iron play makes him dangerous when healthy, but the lack of tune-up golf and fitness concerns on the hilly course significantly temper his outlook.

Contender Power Rankings:

Rankings blend 2026 betting odds, PGA Tour statistics in strokes gained categories, par-5 performance, Masters history, and injury status.  

Tier 1 Elite Favorites

1. Scottie Scheffler: Dominant 2026 form with multiple wins, multiple recent majors, and a sterling Augusta record that includes two victories and no finish outside the top 20 in six starts. Elite approach play and consistency make him the clear man to beat.  

2. Rory McIlroy: Defending champion with a completed Grand Slam, though the recent back spasm and T46 at The Players add minor uncertainty. Strong driving and par 5 scoring remain his calling cards.  

3. Bryson DeChambeau: Par 5 specialist with multiple top 10 finishes at Augusta and recent major contention. 

4. Jon Rahm: 2023 winner and consistent major performer with steady 2026 form.  

5. Ludvig Åberg: Rising star with recent top 15 finishes at Augusta and elite ball-striking metrics.  

6. Xander Schauffele: Reliable top 10 contender with multiple strong Augusta results and two major victories in 2024.  

Tier 2 Strong Contenders 

Cameron Young (recent PLAYERS win and top par-5 scorer), Matt Fitzpatrick (hot irons and high driving accuracy), Tommy Fleetwood (world top-5 form and SG: Around the Green leader), Justin Rose (recent win and multiple top-12 Masters finishes), Patrick Reed (2018 winner and Masters savant with four top-10s since), Hideki Matsuyama (2021 winner with cuts made in every start since 2015), Brooks Koepka (multiple top-10s and major-closing pedigree), and Collin Morikawa (SG: Approach leader with top-20 finishes in every recent start, though back concerns noted).  

Tier 3 Sink Or Swim: 

Jordan Spieth (Masters specialist), Justin Thomas (post surgery progression), Sungjae Im (Returning from back injury, Valspar surge and consistent Augusta history), Corey Conners (elite irons and multiple top-10s here), and Jason Day (five career top-10s at Augusta).  

Lower tiers include experienced veterans such as Fred Couples, Sergio Garcia, and Dustin Johnson, along with approximately 22 debutants and longshots. First timers (Chris Gotterup and his Rutgers teammate Jacob Bridgeman) face the historical burden of no debut winner since 1979.

DFS Strategy and Rankings

Daily fantasy sports contests on DraftKings and FanDuel at the Masters emphasize a balanced build that prioritizes elite ball-strikers with strong par-5 scoring upside while managing salary caps effectively. Augusta National functions as a second-shot course where strokes gained on approach carries the heaviest weight, followed closely by par-5 performance and scrambling ability. Recent data confirms that winners gain the bulk of their advantage through iron play and aggressive scoring on the four par 5s (holes 2, 8, 13, and 15), which often separate the field.

Core Strategy Principles

Focus lineup construction on golfers who rank highly in SG: Approach and par 5 scoring from the 2026 PGA Tour season. These metrics provide the most reliable floor and ceiling at Augusta. Course history adds significant leverage, as past top-12 finishers tend to outperform raw form. In cash games, target high-floor anchors with proven cut-making ability. For large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments, incorporate contrarian value plays and volatile putters who pair well with elite iron players to create differentiation.  

Avoid over-reliance on short-term putting streaks, as greens at Augusta punish inconsistency. Fade players with recent injury rust or limited reps, particularly those reliant on precision around the hills and firm surfaces. Balance salary by anchoring with one or two elite options and filling the roster with mid-tier course specialists and undervalued par 5 scorers.

Top High-Salary Plays (Cash Game Anchors):

Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Xander Schauffele offer the strongest combination of floor and upside. DeChambeau stands out in GPPs due to his par 5 dominance and potential for explosive scoring. Scheffler provides the safest high ownership build thanks to consistent tee-to-green excellence.

Mid-Tier Targets:

Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Young, and Sungjae Im deliver strong course history and recent form at reasonable salaries. Im provides excellent value following his wrist recovery and consistent top-12 Augusta performances. Corey Conners appeals as an iron specialist with multiple top-10 finishes here.

Long Shots & DFS Value Plays:

Jacob Bridgeman has emerged as a popular mid-range target with hot early 2026 form and multiple top-10s, including a victory. Look to players like Russell Henley for accuracy and scrambling, or past champions such as Sergio Garcia for leverage. Watch for debutants or longshots with elite par-5 birdie-or-better rates who can outperform salary if they avoid big numbers on par 4s. Chris Gotterup and select amateurs may offer extreme ownership leverage in tournaments.

Lineup Construction Tips:

In DraftKings builds, pair one top-tier anchor with two to three mid-tier iron players and two value options strong in scrambling or par-5 scoring. Monitor injury updates closely, as players like Morikawa carry higher variance and may be better faded in cash games. Prioritize golfers with recent gains in SG: Approach and par-5 performance while balancing exposure to wind-affected holes and Amen Corner. Successful lineups typically feature at least one player capable of feasting on the par 5s while maintaining bogey avoidance on the demanding par 4s.

The 2026 Masters promises compelling storylines, from Scheffler’s pursuit of a third green jacket to McIlroy’s historic chase for back to back green jackets, the continued emergence of young talent such as Åberg and Gotterup, and the nostalgia of past champions.